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Thursday, May 31, 2012

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Monday, May 28, 2012

Obama sees warnings in North Carolina, Wisconsin, bright spot in New Mexico in race to 270

An analysis of the state-by-state race to 270 electoral votes, the total needed to win the presidency, and where Democratic President Barack Obama and probable Republican nominee Mitt Romney stand now. The numbers reflect electoral votes:

California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.


Michigan (16) — Despite lingering economic pain in the auto capital, Michigan has large minority and union voting blocs that favor Obama. Romney, a native son whose father was governor, won the GOP primary but his opposition to the 2008 auto bailout will hurt him.

Minnesota (10) — Low unemployment and a long streak of Democrats carrying Minnesota give Obama confidence. But Minnesota was competitive in 2000 and 2004, and includes a length of the Mississippi River Valley, among the Midwest’s most pivotal swing regions.

Obama sees warnings

New Mexico (5) — Gave narrow victories to Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and Republican George W. Bush in 2004, and an influx of Hispanic and younger voters now moves this state toward Obama’s column. No advertising yet from Obama, Romney or any super political action committees.

Pennsylvania (20) — Pennsylvania has tipped Democrat in the final month in recent presidential races. Romney has continued campaigning in the state, but a nearly 1 million Democratic edge in voter registration makes the state a reach for the GOP.

Wisconsin (10)
— Embattled Gov. Scott Walker’s improving chances of winning a June 5 recall election helps Romney better compete in Wisconsin, where Ronald Reagan was the last Republican presidential candidate to win. Romney aides say Wisconsin leaps ahead of Michigan in priorities if Walker prevails.


Colorado (9)
— Long a reliable GOP state, but Colorado’s conservative profile is changing. Young professionals and Hispanic voters were central to Obama’s victory in 2008, but the sluggish economy has hurt his standing. Female voters in Denver’s suburbs could play a big role.

Florida (29) — Florida is the prime target for both campaigns. Obama won in 2008, but the housing crisis, high unemployment and gas prices are dogging him. Romney won the primary in January and has picked up the endorsement of GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. Obama’s organization has a large advantage.